Who will replace Theresa May?
After yet another rejection of her Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, Theresa May resigned as head of the Conservative party and will soon be replaced as prime minister of the United Kingdom. The country should have a new leader by the end of July 2019. So, who is the most likely candidate to become Britain’s next prime minister?
The eccentric Boris Johnson is the former mayor of London, a leader of the Brexit campaign and a former foreign secretary. He is the clear favorite to replace Theresa May and says he wants the United Kingdom to leave the EU at the end of October, with or without a deal.
Dominic Raab was appointed Brexit Secretary in July 2018, but resigned four months later because he disagreed with Theresa May’s Brexit agreement. He isn’t against leaving the European Union without a deal. Backed by David Davis, he is the “best-placed Brexit candidate to win the necessary support among MPs and party members and, above all, broaden our appeal to voters,” according to the staunch Brexiteer.
Environment Secretary, Michael Gove has long been an important eurosceptic figure in the Conservative party. However, if Brussels agrees to renegotiate, he is ready to ask for a further Brexit postponement to avoid a hard Brexit at the end of October, in order to get a better deal.
What would it change?
While Brexit should happen on October 31st, investors are wondering what kind of divorce plan the new prime minister will support. Will he be in favor of a second referendum? Will he oppose a “no-deal” Brexit? Will he support an exit at the end of October regardless of the situation?
What consequences will all this have on the British economy, on the global economy and on the value of the British pound? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), increasing worries about a hard Brexit are weighing heavily on global growth forecasts and on the financial markets.
The Forex market is probably the financial market that is most impacted by the Brexit situation. While long-term faith in sterling will depend on how the Brexit saga concludes, the pound will still rise or fall against other currencies in the interim, with each new twist and turn.
Because there are so many international factors that influence the Forex market, smart traders always look at the big picture. That means thinking beyond the narrow scope of the Brexit drama and the various technical tools for tracking currency fluctuations. When trading in GBP/JPY, GBP/USD or GBP/EUR currency pairs, it’s wise to consider as many economic and political factors as possible. What is certain is that the period until the end of October will offer some interesting trading opportunities.